Septic For Small Cabins

Doubts election

First consideration: the exit poll gave him a distinct advantage of votes from the Centre, with the "scissors" deviation of the two coalitions that not even touched 44% -49% to CDX, 50% -55% to CSX. ie the measurements were obtained 46.5 to 52.5 to the CDX and CSX, which is six percentage points of difference, and to predict the maximum margin of error CSX would in any case before (but the error could also go in the opposite direction and establish a world of difference).
course, has always known that exit polls are indicative and not have some validity comparable to that of actual ballots, but at least the utility to provide an indication of the trend have ever had.

said. The earliest data on projections give an advantage to the CSX counted by 4-5 points, a little 'less than "average" of exit polls, but well within the scissors predicted. So to here as in all previous years the exit polls did not provide a given accurate but were generally indicated.

Then, at some point, as it happens shortly after a member of the CDX said it would end up as nothing yet when Florida allowed to foresee what the next few hours we would have been reserved, begin the "comeback" of the CDX.
It 's true that the regions of central Italy, as usual left-handed, were among the quickest to send the results (except for Italy), but it is also true that most of the sections of the north and some is not "red" already fell in the first count in line with the exit polls.

from start to monitor the site 22 rushes with the continuous and constant updates on votes ballots, trying to refresh the page more or less regular intervals as this was made difficult by heavy clogging the servers. Scoring
see how the different data when you update the CDX gains ground on CSX, including updates of a few sections at a time. If the room
the trend still seems plausible, since each time the gap is in favor of CSX riallarga (though always with figures well below the updates with "advanced" CDX), the Senate takes all the air at least suspected . from 22:29 to 02:22, only one update represents a minimum gain of CSX, while all the other signs the advance dl CDX. Now, who has a minimum of familiarity with statistics and the laws of probability knows that the data flow in Queta gender is random and not sequential. The suspicion goes up again when checking the origin of the missing sections, that he does not come from areas not only tend to be right, but are evenly distributed on the basis of regional performance - or for many sections from regions with CDX ahead, as many were located in regions with CSX in the lead, and the remaining areas in substantially the same result as given by the votes already collected in the surrounding sections.
It was therefore legitimate to expect that the gap remained stable. Instead, except that single update (relative to 422 pages) 23:45 of CSX, which marks a slight advantage, all other signs CDX benefits more or less flat. Now, if this can be plausible for the votes coming from Sicily, for example, why the trend remained the same even when the updates related regions such as Lazio (which ends at the photo finish, material balance) and Basilicata (where CSX has taken 60% of the vote)? Explanation
trivial or almost all the sections that were added to these regions gave a vatnaggio the CDX nevertheless did not reflect the trend in the region.
Now, chances are, it is plausible that in regions basically balanced, or even move to CSX, the sections are more favorable to the CDX (there are plausible) were counted together and all towards the end of ballots? This is highly unlikely in math / statistics. And no mention of the unlikelihood of finding land for € 2, we speak of the level of improbability of winning the lottery by playing only once in a lifetime 6 issues buckets.

particular case, which was poised and Lazio could be the x factor allocation of seats in the Senate. about 100 sections of the end of the ballot (just under 4000) the CSX was leading by about 10,000 votes (unfortunately I had not marked the exact figures). Final data, CDX ahead of 37,628 votes, or has recovered a total of about 47,000 in 100 sections. Now, each section has an average of 800 voters. Sections 100 to 800 voters = 80,000 entitled. The turnout of Lazio was 84 .5%, taking a VERY large gap (80% -90%) of those 80,000 have therefore voted in the 64,000 and 72,000 (67,600 according to the influx of Lazio media)
This means that those in the 100 sections CDX took about 69.5% (!!!), with a margin of error between 65% and 73.5%. Cent sections, within a region with a substantial overall balance, with an enormous prevalence of CDX. What kind of sections 100 (even more) there were in New York we can be. What happened to all be together at the end of follow-up and NO. Highly improbable.



Around this institutional chaos, the good news Today was definitely the arrest of Boss of the Mafia Boss Provenzano. Found in the house in Corleone, an area where you're likely to encounter un'attimino the Mafia (with all due respect for other locals, of course).

Now, I'll be malicious or mean, but I notice some strange coincidence. The announcement of the capture is given relatively little time after the data on vote counting dgeli Italians abroad, although not completed, it had become clear allocation of 4 seats in the CSX CSX and then a majority in both chambers , as narrow. Now, a boss (or rather, the boss) wanted for 43 years if it is quiet in the house near Corleone, and which theoretically should ALWAYS be closely monitored in view of the turns that are there and it would be logical and even trivial monitor every inch of that territory. Provenzano is discovered and captured as it happens just after the interior ministry that the data we know that probably will not rule over Berlusconi?
Then one thinks of the nano Arcore held as "groom" for some years Vittorio Mangano, Marcello Dell'Utri dear or right arm of Silvio, founder of Forza Italy and sentenced to nine years for mafia.
A mischievous mind could think that Provenzano's hideout was known for some time and that no return to the Government of proteggimafia Silivia Berlusconi has been a sort of "green light" to capture him. But

Of course, it was all a fortuitous coincidence.
As the declaration of the exponent of the CDX on a final ballot similar to Florida at a time when the current data were not be the slightest doubt about a clear victory of CSX.
As the flow continuous and sequential x CDX votes in the Senate in the last 3-4 hours god ballot.
Just as the last one hundred seats in the Lazio.



But I am a bad boy and I'm not very inclined to believe in coincidences.